意大利为什么起诉ANG="ZH">地震专家

嵇少丞

ANG="ZH-CN">    二周前，意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院以“过失杀人罪”起诉ANG="ZH">地震专家。起诉书上指控由地震专家组成的“高危委员会”在地震前6天举行的新闻发布会上没有向民众提出短期地震警报。据说，该官司得到当地居民的支持，居民认为，地震专家的工资和研究经费来自人民的税，却不能为人民有效的服务，犯了“过失杀人罪”。法庭如何收场，我们拭目以待。

   必须强调，“高危委员会”中的地震专家遭到起诉，并不是因为他们没能预报地震，而是因为如下事实：主震之前该地区发生一系列小地震（前震），民众中流传将发生强震的“谣言”，“高危委员会”的专家们在主震前6天举行的新闻发布会上说：小震已经释放了积累的地震能量，所以大震不再可能。新闻发布会后6天即2009年4月6日发生了6.3级强震。拉奎拉市地方检察院认为，“高危委员会”的“小震已经释放了积累的地震能量，所以大震不再可能”（预报不地震）的结论是没有科学根据的，这样毫无科学基础的结论麻痹了民众，误导了民众。所以，从这层意义上说，意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院起诉地震专家还是合情合理的。支持更多国家的民众起诉毫无科学根据 "预报不地震"的地震专家！

       2009年4月6日欧洲中部夏令时间凌晨3时32分在意大利中部地区一场6.3级地震。地震震中位于阿布鲁佐大区首府拉奎拉，距离罗马95公里。震源深度为10公里，地震持续了15到20秒。该场地震造成大量房屋倒埸，并至少造成290人死亡，1500人受伤， 另有数以万计的人无家可归。很多历史性的建筑也遭到了破坏。估计需要大约160亿美元的资金重建遭到地震重创的地区。

    意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院以“过失杀人罪”起诉地震专家，将开历史先河。中国是否会跟进？意大利地震和地质专家Daniela Pantosti，Alberto Michelini，Alessandro Amato，Massimo Cocco，Ingrid Hunstad，Warner Marzocchi，Claudio Chiarabba，Massimiliano Stucchi在网上联合呼吁世界各国科学家支持他们，反对检察院的指控。现有1000名学者在给意大利总统的公开信上签了名。有兴趣的读者可以登录如下网址：www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ .  

 Subject: Letter of support for Italian earthquake scientists indicted for failing to predict the L'Aquila Earthquake

Dear colleagues and friends,

Two weeks ago the L’Aquila Prosecutor’s office indicted of manslaughter  the members of the National High Risk Committee that met in L'Aquila one week  before the Mw6.3 earthquake.

The charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm  to the population before the earthquake struck, killing more than 300  people. 

The president of INGV, Enzo Boschi (member of the High Risk  Committee), and the director of the National Earthquake Center, Giulio  Selvaggi (just accompanying Boschi to the meeting as technical  specialist), are among the scientists in seismology and earthquake  engineering now under investigation together with some civil protection officials.

We think that the allegations against the scientists are completely  unfounded and we look for support on this from the international  scientific community working on earthquakes and in the Earth sciences in  general.

We invite you to sign the letter addressed to the President of the  Italian Republic, published at the the web page www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ .  We also would be glad if you could extend this invitation to other  seismologists that can possibly share our initiative.

We hope that by this action we can increase the awareness of people on earthquake risk reduction through education, preparedness, and a long term program of building  reinforcement.

Thank you in advance for your support

Daniela Pantosti

Alberto Michelini

Alessandro Amato

Massimo Cocco

Ingrid Hunstad

Warner Marzocchi

Claudio Chiarabba

Massimiliano Stucchi

Open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy
 
Two weeks ago in Italy, the L’Aquila Prosecutor’s office indicted scientists, some of them members of the “Commissione Grandi Rischi” (Commission for High Risks), and civil protection officials for manslaughter. The basis for the indictment is that these people did not provide a short-term alarm to the population after a meeting of the Commission held in L’Aquila six days before the Mw 6.3 earthquake that struck that city and the surrounding area.
 
The allegations against the scientists are completely unfounded. Years of research worldwide have shown that there is currently no scientifically accepted method for short-term earthquake prediction that can reliably be used by Civil Protection authorities for rapid and effective emergency actions.
 
The international seismological community has long recognized that the best approach to defending populations from catastrophic earthquakes is not through earthquake prediction, but through risk mitigation and the application of appropriate safety measures to prevent buildings from collapsing. In this regard, the development of seismic hazard maps, which provide estimates of the probability of occurrence of predefined values of peak ground motion in a given time period, provide the specifications required by building codes to avoid collapse of buildings and the resulting fatalities
 
Italy is an earthquake-prone country. An improved seismic hazard map that summarizes decades of research on earthquake occurrence and effects was completed in 2004 (see http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/). It is the result of the work of many scientists, it is considered to be one of the best seismic hazard maps in Europe, and it has been used as a basis for the Italian building code beginning in 2008 (“Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni”, GU n.29 del 04/02/2008). It should be viewed as the primary  contribution of the Italian earthquake scientists to their Country.
 
Seismic hazard maps must also be used for conveying to the population the basic concepts of earthquake hazard, awareness, preparedness, and response. Increased consciousness of the earthquake hazard and associated risk should also foster further prevention actions by national and local authorities. Overall, earthquake preparedness and damage prevention in the form of retrofitting are not only possible but mandatory in a country affected for the most by moderate size earthquakes that often result in catastrophes for the society because of the large percentage of seismically unreinforced buildings.
 
Education, awareness, preparedness and retrofitting are the best tools for mitigating the impact of the catastrophic earthquakes that will inevitably affect Italy in the future.
 
The scientific community involved in earthquake science urges the Italian government, local authorities and decision makers in general, to be proactive in establishing and carrying out local and national programs to support earthquake preparedness and risk mitigation rather than prosecuting scientists for failing to do something they cannot do yet - predict earthquakes.